Trump "energy independence" policy effect in doubt
Author: Source: Datetime: 2016-11-18 18:22:48
In November 11th, the new US President Donald Trump announced on its website the handover preliminary ruling policy framework, including the mentioned several times during the campaign of "energy independence", the reconstruction of American energy policy, like whether continue support solar power generator. Industry expert analysis, the policy or the United States will be positive for the coal industry, but taking into account the cost advantage of natural gas and the shackles of the U.S. political system, the new policy is difficult to change the plight of the U.S. coal industry in the short term.
In November 11th, the new US President Donald Rutter Ron F announced on its website the handover preliminary ruling policy framework, including the mentioned several times during the campaign of "energy independence", the reconstruction of American energy policy. Industry expert analysis, the policy or the United States will be positive for the coal industry, but taking into account the cost advantage of natural gas and the shackles of the U.S. political system, the new policy is difficult to change the plight of the U.S. coal industry in the short term.
"Energy independence" policy will benefit the coal energy industry
11, published in the policy framework, wrote that the United States will conduct an energy revolution, will become a net exporter of energy, which will bring millions of jobs. Trump will end the "coal war", and from the top down to re-examine the Obama Administration issued the provisions of the coal, the government will open up its own and overseas federal land and mineral fuel production waters of the lease.
The Obama administration and advocated the development of clean energy and reduce carbon emissions of coal-fired power plant's attitude on the contrary, Trump believes that global warming is a hoax, and plans to exit the Paris climate agreement, not to the United Nations global warming prevention project payment.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the latest report, the decline of American coal production in 2015 to 897 million tons, a decline of more than 10%, since 1986 the lowest level of production. Coal related power generation, industry and other consumer spending fell by 13%. 2015, the United States engaged in the coal industry, the number of about 66 thousand people, down 12%, the lowest level since 1978. As of October 29, 2016, the United States this year's coal production was 607 million tons, down 20%.
Guotai Junan analysis, said Trump plans to invest $500 billion for infrastructure construction, is expected in the United States on the one hand by increasing infrastructure construction to increase the iron and steel, electric power demand, thus increasing coal demand; on the other hand, by breaking the limitation of environmental protection of coal industry, to encourage the development of coal-fired power plants, especially to encourage the development and utilization of clean coal, thereby stimulating demand in America again, the coal industry.
In addition, Guotai Junan that the current coal still has the advantages of low cost, the policy is expected to lead the global coal to other national coal policy change. Prior to the Obama administration in the United States to vigorously promote the reduction of carbon emissions, the development of clean energy in the background like using solar backup generator, many countries affected by the United States active or passive restrictions on the development of the coal industry in order to reduce carbon emissions. After Trump came to power, before the development of the coal industry in the country, is expected to change the coal policy to promote the development of coal-fired power plants, and thus lead to an increase in global coal demand.
Multi factor control of the short-term difficult to work
Although Trump in the election process and the new policy framework mentioned several times to the revitalization of the coal industry, but since 2008, due to the cost of natural gas is reduced, and the more stringent environmental requirements, coal-fired power generation accounted for the proportion of American power has dropped to less than 1/3, industry experts believe that the United States wants to revive the coal industry is very difficult, Trump energy the new deal effect remains to be seen.
Shale gas boom in the United States, the United States accounted for more than half of coal-fired power generation, natural gas accounted for less than 20% of the electricity generation. By 2017, EIA predicts that the proportion of coal-fired power generation and gas power generation accounted for 31% and 33%. Western Reserve CAse University (Case Western Reserve University) Energy Research Institute of the United States, the study shows that the decline in coal consumption in the United States and the United States shale gas revolution is highly correlated. Since 2008 the U.S. natural gas production increased by 10 times, the price fell by half. From January 2012 to January 2016 within 49 months, the United States Henry Hub natural gas prices have less than 43 months of the Appalachian coal production cost.
Zhuochuang information coal analyst Han Bin said that the consumption of coal in primary energy in the United States accounted for only 16%, the main energy or oil and natural gas accounted for 36% and 30%, even if the increase in coal production of the world's influence is limited. In the current situation of the current global economy continues to bottom shock, Trump's policy is only to prevent a sharp decline in the coal industry, it is difficult to revive the coal industry is very difficult.
According to EIA's latest estimates, the United States of America's natural gas combined cycle power generation most economically competitive, regardless of whether or not to consider the cost of externalities, are all types of energy in the cheapest power. In all kinds of power supply, like solar generator as a baseload running natural gas combined cycle power plant business costs (excluding climate change, environment, health and other negative externalities) the lowest, only 5.3 cents / kWh, lower than hydropower (6.5 cents / kWh), onshore wind power (7 cents / kWh, coal (8) cents / kWh), photovoltaic (10.3 cents / kWh), nuclear power (10.4 cents / kWh). If we consider climate change and other external costs in the business cost, the total cost of natural gas combined cycle power plant society is still the lowest (8.4 cents / kWh), while coal total social cost up to 17.4 cents / kWh, the most expensive of all kinds of power supply.
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