Photovoltaics: Towards Pillar Energy
Author: Source: Datetime: 2016-11-14 16:22:05
The photovoltaic industry development, since 2013, China's new photovoltaic applications become the world's first. By the end of 2015, the country's total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 43.18 million kilowatts, an increase of 54%, surpassing Germany to become the world's largest solar power generator application market.
Parity Internet can be expected
In the past two years, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Mexico and other countries of the photovoltaic tender price (PPA) continue to create a new low, the lowest reached 0.0299 US dollars/kWh, China 2016 second half of photovoltaic "leader" base bidding project, the lowest tender price has been As low as 0.52 ~ 0.61 yuan/kWh, showing a large photovoltaic power generation there is room for decline. The IEA estimates that the long-term costs of photovoltaic power generation can be reduced to US $ 0.065/kWh, and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts that by 2025, the world's largest PV power plant (PVEA) will be the world's largest PV power plant Investment costs can be reduced to 0.8 US dollars/watt, compared to 2015 US $ 1.8/watt investment costs will decline by 57%.
Comprehensive analysis, it is estimated that in 2020 the price of PV modules in China can be reduced to 2.7 yuan/peak watts, photovoltaic inverter down to 0.15 yuan/watt, communication monitoring and related electrical equipment down to 0.6 yuan/watt, stents and other electrical equipment Space is not obvious; is not expected to consider the energy storage grid-connected PV system initial investment in 2020 can be reduced to 6 yuan/peak tile around. In 2030, the initial investment cost of distributed PV power is expected to decrease by 21% to 5.3 yuan/watt. The initial investment cost of centralized large-scale PV power generation will drop by 23% to 5 yuan/watt.
In the electricity demand, it is expected that by 2020 the demand for centralized photovoltaic power generation will be reduced to 0.47 ~ 0.70 yuan/kWh, 2030 dropped to 0.4 to 0.6 yuan/kWh the following; distributed photovoltaic power demand by 2020, 2030 will be reduced to 0.49 ~ 0.74 yuan/kWh and 0.44 -0.66 yuan/kWh or so, solar power generation has been able to compete with coal.
2030 installed capacity of 500 million kilowatts
According to the estimation of the China Wind Energy Solar Energy Resource Assessment Center of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), considering the available land (land property), development cost, delivery conditions and other factors, China's centralized PV power plant has the potential to be exploited by the power and district heating optimization deployment model (EDO) 2.6 billion kilowatts, China's distributed PV installed capacity of 950 million kilowatts, of which the construction of distributed PV power installed capacity of 540 million kilowatts, other distributed PV installed capacity of 410 million kilowatts.
From the scale of development, in the established policy scenarios, with the decline in the cost of photovoltaic power generation and renewable energy development and utilization of the target guidance system and the full implementation of renewable energy generation and other policies to protect the implementation of policies, China's solar power will continue to maintain rapid Stable growth, by 2020 the total installed capacity of solar power will reach 200 million to 220 million kilowatts, accounting for 9% of total installed capacity, generating capacity of 240 billion kwh, accounting for 3% of total generating capacity; to 2030 total installed capacity of solar power Will reach 500 million kilowatts, accounting for 20% of the total installed capacity of generating capacity of 650 billion kwh, accounting for 7% of all power generation.
From the development of layout, 2030 years ago to increase the development of distributed solar power generation in particular, building distributed photovoltaic, in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and other economically developed areas focus on building distributed photovoltaic power generation construction, Parks, economic development zones, large-scale public facilities such as the development and utilization of large-scale roof. In Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other eastern coastal provinces and modern agricultural developed areas, focusing on promoting the use of fish ponds, agricultural greenhouses, highways and railways and other types of distributed solar power generation. In the southwest and southeast areas, the main combination of Sichuan, Fujian, Guangxi large hydropower base construction of water and light complementary megawatt-class power generation base. In the western region, Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions with high voltage transmission channel planning, construction of large photovoltaic power generation base. In the Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Anhui, Shandong, Hebei coal mining subsidence area of land, water and other forms of comprehensive management of advanced technology demonstration base construction.
Crystalline silicon will remain dominant
China is the world's largest photovoltaic module manufacturing countries,solar power batteries technology research and development categories cover almost all types of batteries, with active photovoltaic technology research team and a complete photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain. The first type of battery for the fully commercialized crystalline silicon cells (single crystal cells, polycrystalline batteries, IBC batteries, etc.), the second category is thin-film batteries (Si-based thin-film battery, CdTe battery, CIGS battery), the third type of battery is not yet commercialized new battery (ferroelectric - semiconductor coupling cell, III-V compound battery, organic battery, dye-sensitized battery, perovskite Batteries, quantum dot batteries, etc.).
China's crystalline silicon industry chain, the overall level of industrial technology strong, in which the level of polysilicon production technology continues to improve, large-scale backbone enterprises polysilicon production energy consumption, material consumption dropped significantly, the industry average integrated power consumption has dropped to 90 kWh/kg, comprehensive cost To 90,000 yuan/ton, reached the international advanced level, into the ranks of world-class enterprises. From the technical development point of view, the conventional crystalline silicon cell conversion efficiency improved significantly in 2015, single crystal and polycrystalline cell efficiency of industrial production reached 19.5% and 18.3%. In 2014, a domestic photovoltaic enterprises in the commercial 156mm × 156mm single crystal on the solar power battery efficiency reached 21.45% in 2015 turn 156mm × 156mm polycrystalline battery efficiency increased to 21.25%, the world's first breakthrough in polysilicon cell efficiency of 21% of the threshold , Is the most efficient level of polycrystalline batteries.
The reason why photovoltaic power generation can be called strategic renewable energy, the main factor is its technological progress and cost reduction still has great potential. In the long term, the future technological progress of photovoltaic cells is mainly to improve conversion efficiency and reduce manufacturing costs, the next 10 years, crystalline silicon cells will continue to occupy the largest market share, efficient crystalline silicon cells will likely get a higher market share; In the process of competition with the crystalline silicon cells made great progress; new solar power battery potential, still need to solve key issues as soon as possible, will be in 2030 after the technology matures, to achieve 30% of the battery conversion efficiency and commercial production.
Business model old and new combination
Since 2014, the national photovoltaic power generation application model innovation. Photovoltaic curtain wall, PV agricultural greenhouse, Yuchuang complementary power station, PV poverty alleviation and other new application models and business models are emerging, a combination of barren hillslope treatment and ecological restoration and photovoltaic power generation construction projects have been rapid development of these new Most applications are located in the eastern part of China, close to the power load side, bringing new business opportunities for distributed generation.
However, the distributed PV business model is not yet mature, there are three main: self-owned spontaneous mode, full power sales model, the contract energy management.
The last two years, the emergence of the public financing, finance leasing, YieldCo and other new photovoltaic financing model. In general, these new financing models are still in their infancy, with only a few pilot projects. PV financing and online finance leasing project financing is still small, it is difficult to attract public investors, it is difficult for the distributed PV project financing to provide strong support. With the continuous introduction of PV positive policies, PV investment environment continues to improve, innovative financing model will be constantly improved.
Based on the experience of Germany and the United States, China should learn from Germany's policy-oriented bank-led investment and financing model, set up special loans for photovoltaic power generation, provide long-term loans for PV projects at preferential interest rates, and establish stable distributed PV project financing path. On this basis, to encourage the development of photovoltaic enterprises and financial institutions work together to make full use of their professional capacity, financial strength and market experience, encourage enterprises in business models and investment and financing model of exploration and innovation, to create suitable for the Chinese market SolarCity model to provide a variety of investment and financing path; the same time, including pension and social security funds to encourage the pursuit of long-term and stable return to the diversification of capital involved in promoting the development of photovoltaic power generation at the same time to develop the conditions for participation in solar power generation investment.
Humans will gradually get rid of dependence on fossil fuels and take a green low-carbon sustainable development road, which is irreversible energy transformation direction. Although the development is not smooth, but the Chinese government to promote economic sustainable development, has been proposed to build an ecological civilization, to promote energy storage batteries production and consumption revolution, commitment to tackle climate change and many other long-term goals, and in-depth economic and energy power reform process, these Will give a clear direction for the establishment of a green and sustainable energy system and a green, economic and safe power system and an effective market mechanism, and lay a solid policy foundation.
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