PV capacity are close to GW club level
Author: Source: Datetime: 2016-10-25 13:38:54
As well know that the domestic photovoltaic industry have encountered “winter” in 2011-2012. And will achieve bottoming out in the second half of 2013. With the investment boom occurs for domestic PV power plant in the past two years, PV solar generator installation are soared. According to the media reports, in 2015, Chinese new PV installed capacity are of about 43 GW, and became the world PV cumulative installed capacity.
From the industry "winter" to a new round of growth, the PV authorities said: the whole PV industry trend are great, Chinese PV industry have occupied an important position in the global PV industry. It is expected to expand production capacity doubled to 1.6GW, matching the way of PV battery GW club.
“Our tax increased last year, mainly due to the end of the value-added tax, in fact the earnings growth is not so exaggerate than taxes, an increase of approximately 20% -30%." The professional people said, and it will grow faster expansion this year, it is estimated that the annual output value will exceed to RMB 30 billion yuan, an increase of over 50%.
In fact, the PV industry is in the phase of capacity expansion. Accounting for nearly 50% of the global PV market and share 6 members of the "Super League silicon component", in addition to the green energy, each company have published different expansion plans.
But four years ago, the PV industry is still in the “reduce capacity” throes. 2011 -2012 years is the reshuffle period for PV industry, removing 95% of capacity. Many companies has taken in advance to avoid the risk of production practices.
In 2012, due to the production of overheated investment, the slowing demand result to the excess capacity. US stocks listed 11 Chinese PV enterprises are facing comprehensive losses. The other small and medium PV enterprises are facing pumping bank loan crisis. “PV” “ dual” have caused a ban panic, as long as the off-grid solar power system related businesses, we must draw the loan.
The turning point came in the second half of 2013. After the industry reshuffle, the supply and demand for PV market are balanced, domestic mainstream PV enterprises showed a turnaround situation in the 2013 third quarter earnings report.
After the shuffling period, surviving firms are tend to become more competitive. In addition to open market space, Chinese companies A’s technology are accelerating. The reporters had found 92 patents, 60 of which are licensed in 2015, more than four years before the total authorized amount. There are 34 patents are in the process of being approved.
There are also bring troubles after the “happiness” technology accumulation. “A” said: “many other companies try to get my staff out, we had to deal this problem by raise the income. Before we are talent input, but now it’s output.” According to reports, there are 1200 staff in A’s company, of which 60 multiplayer full-time R&D personnel.
Although nowadays the PV industry are usher in the spring. But the difficulties are still exist, before our problem is the lack of money to operation, but now the difficulty is to find a way to meet the customers needs. We strike a balance between the expansion of development and cash flow, it’s relatively hard. A believed that in terms of technology, market and finance, there are also much space efforts.
Leading a half step of technology to avoid elimination
The competition between crystalline silicon and thin film is a classic topic in the PV industry. September 2014, there was a change in top propaganda chiefs PV event. There are two parties, one believes crystalline silicon battery low cost, high conversion rate is the market mainstream. The other one think the thin-film modules can be sewn on clothes, so that human beings can use solar energy like the green plants.
“A” apparently is the fans of crystalline silicon technology. He will compete with crystalline silicon thin film panel LCD and plasma industry. “on the technology, plasma are better than LCD, but most of the businesses invest in the LCD industry, made liquid crystal improved quality and reduced cost in a short time; only one or two companies are doing plasma, less investment, research and development is slow, and it’s at a disadvantage in the competition.” The film is not a technical problem, but most of the industry select crystalline silicon, and make amorphous silicon improve the conversion efficiency and reduce costs.
It is reported that in 2009 the market share of thin-film modules are of 16%, 83% crystalline silicon. Five years later, due to a substantial decline in the price of crystalline silicon components, and technology improvement efficiency are higher than thin-film, crystalline silicon modules share market rose to 91%, only 9% of the film. " "The film has become a niche market," the reason why “A” insisted crystalline silicon, because "one business can not lead this industry, we have chosen to become the most competitive part of the solar power generator industry chain."
In the previous technological change in the PV industry, “A” have always made the choice to follow the mainstream. Anti-potential-induced attenuation technology (PID-Free) is a hot technology two years ago in the photovoltaic industry, it’s used for solving the performance at high temperatures, humidity and other environmental decay problems.
As early as 2013, there are enterprises release PID-Free products, in the second quarter of 2014,more than 50% of “B”’ s green energy production capacity to achieve a PID-Free. “A” have apply for PID-Free patent in July 2014. But according to them said, “A” similarly achieved energy yield PID-Free products full capacity in 2014, so it is visible that the time from development to mass production are short.
The back surface passivation techniques (PERC) is the “new favorite” of photovoltaic industry since last year, it is allegedly to improve 0.7%- 1% of the photoelectric conversion efficiency. Atech and Btech were in April last year and January this year launched the application PERC technology. A have won the first PERC product patents last December.
In the PID-Free production of “fast” and PERC mass production “ other” Behind the contrast is the same "half a step ahead" policy. One step ahead of new technology enterprises are facing a huge return on investment and uncertainty, half a step ahead is a more conservative strategy.
According to reports, there will be a emergency of new technology in the solar generator industry every 2-3 month. And major technological changes in every 1-2 years. “A” have develop and reserved for all the technical possibilities in the upfront level. But they do not rush to mass production. People put a production line to verify the technical maturity, the next day we will all be replaced." They said exaggerated.
“A” believed that the elimination of the PV industry is brutal, over head to put into new technologies to result the difficult cash flow, it may become a “martyr”; nor too far behind, it you cannot keep up the amount of new technologies within the industry for 3-5 months postpartum, it will be eliminated; if you select uncompetitive technology camp, the whole industry chain is more likely to have been eliminated.” It’s like a marathon than physical strength and endurance, you need to always stand in the first echelon, if relieved, there is no recovers forever.” He said.
The cost for PV power generation are reduced to 3 hair during the 5 years
In January, Secretary-General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association Wang Bo said, in 2015, China's new PV generator installation is about 15GW, an increase of more than 40%; the cumulative nationwide PV installed capacity reached about 43GW, surpassing Germany to become global cumulative installed PV largest country.
Recently the Eighth China International Clean Energy Expo renewed a rumors of heavy news, China National Energy Administration said that the goal for the new 100GW of PV installed capacity in 2020. Meanwhile, he National Development and Reform Commission and other departments and organizations also issued a document, which clearly ensured The scale for PV poverty alleviation are 15GW in “Thirteen Five” period.
These data embodied a broad market perspective of the PV industry. The past “two outside” argument does not exist, China is the world largest PV market, the newest technology for material are also in China”, Policy direction also changed. In the end of last year, the State Ministry of photovoltaic and wind power will be removed from the list of excess capacity, that means the PV companies will easier to access to financial support.
However, if the PV industry really want gain a secure market, only to reduce the cost of electricity. According to reports, the western region of Tibet, Xinjiang and other power generation costs about 0.4 yuan / kWh, in southern China about 0.7 yuan / kWh. "With the development of technology and improvement of the photoelectric conversion efficiency, photovoltaic power generation cost will reduced to RMB0.3yuan/degrees within 5 years. And coupled with the environmental cost advantages, PV will be the cheapest source of energy.
In fact, if compared with five years ago, the decline cost of photovoltaic power generation is obvious. It is reported that, five years ago, the cost of photovoltaic power generation to about RMB 4 yuan / kWh, up to now it has fallen to 10 times; five years ago, crystalline silicon cell photovoltaic conversion rate of about 16%.
It is worth to mention that the technological advances may accelerate the decline in the cost of solar power system.In addition to the foregoing PERC technologies are expected to enhance the photoelectric conversion rate of 1%, another PV companies in sanshui- Guangdong new energy Company is developing intelligent tracking bracket, it is expected to enhance the power generation efficiency of the photovoltaic power plants by 15% -40%.
According to reports, new energy company is a PV mounting system vendors, they develop its cooperation with Huawei smart bracket and can rotate follow the sun, wind, rain and other weather changes and to deal with it. In order to improve power generation efficiency of power solar buckup generator plants.In this regard, “A” think Guangdong is expected to develop PV industry cluster. Many battery ,inverter, and holder manufacturers are here. The only thing is just a lack of vertical integration of large-scale PV companies, so that led to the current situation of the industry chain dispersion.
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