Global solar energy industry will be affected by U.S. election?
Author: Source: Datetime: 2016-11-08 11:05:31
Global attention to the results of the U.S. presidential election will be announced in November 8th local time. Because Hilary and Trump's energy policy is very different, elected, for the United States, even the global renewable energy industry will have a significant impact, the solar power generator industry will be more.
Two different attitudes
Trump, Hilary's attitude toward the issue of climate is very different from the attitude of the energy policy. Hilary said, will follow Obama's energy policy, and actively promote solar energy, wind power and other renewable energy sources, but Trump believes that oil, oil shale and other energy more worthy of development.
Hilary, which is her goal in 2020 before the first term in the equipment of 500 million solar panels; in terms of current mainstream specifications 260W conversion, the equivalent of 138GW, which is her term of office will have an annual capacity of more than 30GW equipment. At the same time, Hilary also plans to make all of the United States in 2027, all residential renewable energy, when the United States is expected to have 30% of electricity from renewable energy sources.
On the other hand, Trump took the suspicion to the greenhouse effect; in terms of energy like solar backup generator, he plans to contain domestic large-scale use of shale oil, shale gas, natural gas, clean coal and other fossil fuels (cleancoal), in keeping the air clean under the premise of building energy supply system independent". Trump also pointed out that this set of oil shale based energy policy, will be able to create 2 million jobs in the next 7 years.
Overseas research firm LuxResearch believes that compared to the two sides of the energy policy, Trump after two years of 8 term, greenhouse gas emissions will eventually be higher than Hilary's two term of office 16%, that is, 34 tons. The United States is currently the only the second Chinese row country, whether Trump will abandon the Paris agreement, adhere to its energy structure, various different views.
EnergyTrend comments: the impact of solar energy industry
Hilary and Trump's energy policy differences are very large, which is most affected by the impact of renewable energy related legislation, such as solar energy investment tax relief (InvestmentTaxCredit, ITC) program. This will directly impact on the U.S. solar demand, thus making the global supply and demand fluctuations.
EnergyTrend analyst Cai Minchun pointed out that in November 8th the day not just the presidential election in the United States, Florida, Washington, Nevada, part of the state government and a referendum on renewable energy policies, such as direct carbon tax, liberalization etc.. Under the Obama administration, the United States to promote renewable energy has accumulated some achievements, but Jo Trump was elected and the exact implementation of its energy policy, it means that the United States in the past few years to build up renewable energy policy will be all over again.
Cai Minchun said: the biggest impact is ITC. Existing ITC policy has been extended to 2019, but if Trump lifted the ITC act, 2017, 2018 demand will have a great change."
In the existing ITC framework, EnergyTrend estimated U.S. solar generator demand will be about 8~10GW year in 2016~2018; but if the ITC stop, the U.S. solar demand will greatly decline, resulting in a drop in global demand. This will enable the supply chain to the deterioration of market pile up in excess of requirement, will fall into chaos.
However, Jo Trump was elected, ITC canceled, solar energy counter measures will also lose its meaning because of weak demand in the United States, the U.S. demand will shrink is still the greatest impact.
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