Global Solar Industry or by US General Election Impact ?
Author: Source: Datetime: 2016-11-08 14:18:19
Hillary, Trump for climate issues and even the attitude of the energy policy is very different. Hillary said that Obama will follow the government's energy policy, and actively promote solar energy, wind power and other renewable energy, but Trump believes that oil, oil shale and other energy more worthy of development.
Hillary goal 2020 years ago, that is, her first term in the United States 500 million solar panels; if the current mainstream specifications 260W conversion, equivalent to 138GW as much as her office every year there will be more than 30GW Of the equipment. At the same time, Hillary also plans in 2027 when all the homes of the United States completely re-mining of renewable energy, when the United States is also expected to have 30% of electricity from renewable energy sources.
On the other hand, Trump is skeptical of the greenhouse effect; in energy, he plans to use a large-scale domestic shale oil, shale gas, natural gas, clean carbon (cleancoal) and fossil fuels, in maintaining their air Clean, under the premise of creating "independent energy supply system." Trump also pointed out that the oil shale-based energy policy, in the next 7 years will create 2 million jobs.
Overseas research firm LuxResearch that, compared to the energy policy, Trump after 8 years in two terms, GHG emissions will eventually Hillary's two terms 16% higher than, or 3.4 billion tons. Currently the United States is second only to China's second largest carbon emissions, Trump will abandon the Paris agreement, insist on its energy structure, different views.
Hillary and Trump's energy policy is very different, the most affected is the existing renewable energy-related bills, such as solar investment tax relief (InvestmentTaxCredit, ITC) program and other solar power generator products. This will directly impact US demand for solar energy, thereby causing fluctuations in global supply and demand.
EnergyTrend analyst Cai Min-chun pointed out that November 8 is not only the day of the US presidential election day, Florida, Washington, Nevada and other parts of the state government also carry out a referendum on renewable energy related policies, such as direct carbon tax, electricity liberalization Wait. Under the leadership of the Obama administration, the United States has accumulated some success in promoting renewable energy, but if Trump was elected and implemented its energy policy, it would mean that the renewable energy policy set up by the United States over the past few years would be fully re-energized. Come.
"The biggest impact is ITC," Tsai said, "The existing ITC policy has been extended to 2019, but if Trump lifts the ITC, the demand for 2018 and 2018 will change a lot."
Under the existing ITC framework, EnergyTrend estimates US solar demand will be around 8 to 10 GW per year between 2016 and 2018. But if ITC halts, demand for solar energy and solar powered portable generator in the United States will fall substantially, leading to a decline in global demand. This will worsen the supply chain oversupply, the market will fall into chaos.
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